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EST on Wednesday. United shares, which gained 27% in 2016, closed Tuesday at $73.74, and have risen 1% year to date. “United’s uninspiring Q1 guide is likely to be met with disappointment from the market, in our view, suggesting a level of RASM malaise inconsistent with recent share price gains,” said JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker in a note issued late Tuesday. Baker called the pretax margin guide “disappointing,” and said it would lead to current-quarter earnings between 8 cents and 42 cents a share; consensus is 41 cents. Baker thinks that will decline to about 30 cents a share as analysts revise their estimates. Baker said the margin guidance suggests that “meaningful relative margin improvement continues to elude United’s reconstituted management team.” But he said it is the RASM number that is likely to trouble investors and analysts, although he noted that United’s RASM has exceeded guidance for three consecutive quarters. “While both fuel and ex-fuel CASM guidance are higher than anticipated, we’d have expected a pass from the equity market if accompanied by RASM closer to 2% (which we believe many buy-siders were looking for, despite sell-side expectations closer to flat),” Baker wrote. Cowen & Co. analyst Helane Becker said she expects “choppy trading early this morning,” noting “investor expectations were elevated for United’s unit revenue guidance given recent positive guidance and 1Q guidance from Delta.” For United, Becker has a market perform rating and a $75 price target. Other analysts weremore positive. CFRA analyst Jim Corridore reiterated a strong buy and raised his target price to $86, while Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Linenberg reiterated a buy and a target price of $81.
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